These numbers will raise an eyebrow or two.
So Australia just hit a new milestone. According to the ABS’s population clock, we’ve just clocked up our 27 millionth Aussie.
As the Analytics firm Mccrindle note, this is well ahead of schedule:
“Australia has reached 27 million, more than thirty years ahead of predictions”:
“Australia’s population has increased by 624,100 over the past 12 months, equivalent to adding the population of the entire state of Tasmania (572,800) in just one year”.
“Based on the latest annual growth rate of 2.4%, Australia’s population will be 41 million by 2042, 16 million more than the 2002 forecasts”.
“It is the balance of 737,200 overseas arrivals and 219,100 departures which has led to record growth”.
“Based on Treasury’s Intergenerational Report 2002 forecast, Australia’s population was only projected to be 23.4 million by this point. The 2002 report also forecasts a national population of 25 million in 2037”.
“However, this milestone was reached 19 years early, in August 2018. In these forecasts prepared in 2002, Australia’s population growth was projected to slow into the 2000s from 1.2% at the turn of the Millennium, to around 0.6% in the 2020s, 0.4% in the 2030s, and just 0.2% in the 2040s”.
“However, instead of slowing growth, the population growth has accelerated over recent years”.
“In the Treasury’s 2002 population model, Australia’s population was to hit 25.3 million by the end of the projection period in 2042. The latest population milestone of 27 million has been reached more than 30 years ahead of the 2002 forecast”.
Now, there’s nothing intrinsically good or bad about these populations numbers. As long as the infrastructure is there to support the population. (Roads? Water!?!)
And as long as we have homes to put everybody in.
But it’s not clear to me that we’re doing such a great job on the infrastructure front, and when it comes to housing, well, Google “National Housing Crisis” and tell me what you get.
We’re already in a chronic housing shortage.
Oxford Economics recently released their Residential Property Prospects report, which forecasts a growing gap between the number of dwellings being built and the number needed to house Australians.
Oxford forecasts there will be a “stock deficiency’’ of 97,284 dwellings in 2024 – a number that will grow to 145,470 by 2026.
Oxford Economics Australia senior economist and report author, Maree Kilroy, said this shortfall would underpin prices for houses and units nationally, as well as keep upward pressure on rents.
Australia’s median home price hit an estimated record high of $939,000 in December 2023, and Oxford projects further growth of 2.7% in the 2023-24 financial year, before picking up steam to average 6.3% growth each financial year in 2024-25 and 2025-26 as rate cuts take effect.
If you ask me, I reckon they’re underestimating both of these numbers. I reckon the real ‘housing deficiency’ is much bigger than 150,000, and price growth will come in well above 3% this year – even 6% seems a bit shy.
But the general point is right. With the population growing this quickly, you can lock in housing shortages as far as the eye can see.
DB