Truth Bomb Tuesday: Don’t wait until you know
I caught a quote from the comedian Conan O’Brien I really like the other day:
“Nobody knows really what they’re doing. And there are two ways to go with that information. One is to be afraid, and the other is to be liberated, and I choose to be liberated by it.”
I like this a lot.
I know a lot of people tying themselves in knots right now, trying to get a read on where the market is going, and figuring out where they should put their money.
Does the stock market boom have legs? Should I pile in to AI Stocks?
Or should I just put it all into cash, a military-grade bunker and some tinned food?
Is Donald Trump going to win this week and become a tin-pot dictator? Or is Harris going to win and paint everything woke?
And of course, since I’ve got a reputation for being good with money, everyone wants to know what I reckon.
I really wish I could tell them. I really wish I knew how this was all going to play out.
But I don’t. Like O’Brien says, I don’t know what I’m doing. I have systems that work across a range of probably outcomes, but I don’t “know” how it’s going to play out. Nobody does.
But there’s this pressure out there that we should know what we’re doing.
Especially when it comes to money. And especially when we’re trying something new.
I see it with first time property investors all the time. They often wait and wait and wait – holding out for that deal that’s going to deliver good profits 100% guaranteed, no risk.
(It never happens. Investing is not like that.)
Of course, in 18 months when we look back at this period, it will all seem so crystal clear in hindsight.
Of course the stock market was going to boom. I mean, of course the stock market was going to crash.
The signs were everywhere.
And the people who happened to find themselves on the right side of the trade, whatever it is, will pat themselves on the back, and tell anyone who’ll listen that the reason they made so much money was because the signs were everywhere, and they were smart, and anyone who didn’t do what they did was an idiot.
It will be painful to listen to.
But the reality is that nobody knows.
And as Conan says, there’s something very liberating about this. You don’t know. You’re not supposed to know.
You’ve just got do your best.
And in practice, that means positioning yourself well. Working with uncertainty is being able to roll with all the probable scenarios.
For example, I might have a hunch that a particular area is about to boom. But if I’m going to buy into that area, I’m also going to be looking for cashflow, and I’m going to be looking for potential to renovate or subdivide for example.
So if the area booms, I do well. If it doesn’t boom as much as I’d hoped, well then I might have enough cashflow to still make the deal worthwhile. Or I might go ahead with a renovation and manufacture growth that way.
I “position” myself to be able to roll with different scenarios.
I don’t “know”. You never “know.” You just position yourself well and see where the cards land.
Anyway, the point is, take some of the pressure off.
You don’t know. You’re not supposed to know. Nobody knows.
Let yourself be liberated by that.
DB.