November 23, 2020 by Dymphna

NZ boom goes ‘historic’

For once, New Zealand is about 12 months ahead of Australia.

I’ve been saying for a few months now that if we want to know what’s going to happen in the Australian property markets, the place to look to is New Zealand.

And what’s happening across the ditch right now?

Boom. Boom is happening.

Kiwi house prices are up an incredible 20% year on year!

Median house prices across New Zealand increased by 19.8% from $605,000 in October 2019 to a new record median high of $725,000 in October 2020; and up from $689,000 in September this year (a 5.2% lift)…

Median house prices for New Zealand excluding Auckland increased by 15.4% from $520,000 in October last year to a new record median price of $600,000, and up from $585,000 in September this year (a 2.6% increase).

Additionally, Auckland’s median house price increased by 16.3% from $860,000 at the same time last year to $1,000,000 a new record high, and up from $955,000 in September this year (a 4.7% increase)…

Bindi Norwell, Chief Executive at REINZ says: “October 2020 will go down in ‘housing history’ as being the point in time when Auckland region’s median house price hit the million dollar mark for the first time – something no one anticipated or expected just six months after the entire country came out of lockdown.

It’s historic, that’s for sure. But forget that dollar figure amount. What’s historic is that 20% jump.

It’s not often you pick up 20% in a year. It’s massive.

We’re talking about 4.7% in October alone.

It’s happening across the country.

As the price chart goes exponential…

… and sales volumes are up a frenzy-level 26% year on year.

So why do we care?

Well, I reckon that where New Zealand is going, Australia is not far behind.

Remember New Zealand faced the same global shut-down that Australia did, although domestically, Covid never took hold like it did in Victoria.

Like Australia, New Zealand also got a solid dose of cheap money medicine. Interest rates were slashed and the government was spraying money all over the place.

Now, cheap money in the way of government support and super-low interest rates will have an impact on asset prices eventually.

In Australia’s case, the only thing holding our markets back is the lingering hang-over from Victoria’s lock-down (although Adelaide is looking queasy now).

Once that clears, markets will lift, I can guarantee it.

And New Zealand gives us a sense of what’s in store. New Zealand shows you what happens when you give a massive dose of cheap money medicine to an economy that’s getting by ok.

It goes straight into asset prices, and house prices in particular.

And then bam, all of a sudden, you’re looking at price growth of 20%.

Which, for my money, is about where we’ll be by mid to late next year.