See the world through the eyes of an economist.
Housing market slowing into Christmas
Corelogic data for November saw house prices growing just 0.1% over the month across the nation. Sydney and Melbourne are slipping backwards, and growth in the other capitals is coming off recent highs.
There’s a similar story happening with rental price growth. Perth is still running hot, but every city is settling down from their recent (and very elevated!) peaks.
GDP is barely moving
Economic growth came in slower than expected for the September quarter, lifting just 0.3% in the quarter:
Private demand remains weak, while public demand continues to prop the growth numbers up. This chart below shows that there’s been a massive difference between government spending and private spending post-Covid.
But there may be a little hope on the horizon. Retail sales were stronger than expected in the month of October. This is the first month in the December quarter, suggesting that December quarter GDP numbers might look a little better.
America is (still) the land of the free
With everyone wondering what Trump is going to do on tariffs, it’s worth remembering that tariff revenue, as a percent of total imports, remains very low, in a longer run historical context. That said, Trump might look at this and think that he has plenty of upside to work with!
And that’s how the world looked through the eyes of an economist this week.
DB.